Bitcoin

Here’s Why The Bitcoin Bull Run Hasn’t Run Yet


CNBC Brian Kelly The Bitcoin bull case builds by noting a divergent metric that has, in the past, been predicting a calm before a price storm.

Uncertainty prevails, market sentiment so scared. As such, the narrative of a return to the crypto winter is strong. However, Kelly’s analysis makes him think it’s time to break up.

Bitcoin Bull Run is still on the right track

From peak to trough, a 54% drop from an all-time high of $65,000 was enough to scare the market. short term investors They got out of their positions, puzzled, fearing further retreat.

Bitcoin’s steady performance hasn’t helped since its price bottomed out at $29K. For the past two weeks or so, BTC has been constrained by a range at the daily close between $35,000 and $41,000.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Although the start of this week led to consecutive daily gains, rejection is close $38k Tuesday has added to the narrative that Bear The market is back.

However, CNBC’s Brian Kelly builds the bull case by noting the Bitcoin address growth rate compared to the expected address growth. He noted that the growth of the physical address is steady, while the expected growth in the address has declined.

Bitcoin Addresses, Actual vs. Predicted

Source: CNBC Television on YouTube.com

“For me, when you look at Bitcoin, it’s all about network impact and really about address growth. So one of the key metrics I see when I’m managing crypto money is how fast addresses are growing versus what the market is expecting.”

Kelly notes that the last time a similar headline difference occurred was in March 2020, during the “Corona Crash”. The resulting price action saw a move of over 1,750% over the course of 13 months, peaking at $65,000.

“Generally speaking, when bitcoins are mispriced this is evidence of this bottoming out. So we look back to March 2020 when we had a massive divergence, when bitcoin was thirty-five hundred and soared to sixty-five thousand.

To support this view, Kelly stated that the basics are still the same in those institutions are still there. The hedging story continues, and the regulatory authorities continue to express their desire to work with cryptocurrencies rather than ban them.

Is bull racing still intact?

Reaching an all-time high and then experiencing a rapid drop of 54% is enough to signal the end of the Bitcoin rally for many.

automation engineer, Alexandros Rombos, indicates that crypto bull periods usually last 460-518 days. This current phase is only 370 days, but he is still cautious in declaring with certainty that the uptrend is sound.

“The market appears to be split in the middle. One part thinks we are in a bearish phase and this cycle is over due to a major correction. The other half thinks we haven’t seen significant gains in this uptrend and that we are in a healthy correction.”

However, some analysts have talked about bigger price swings and longer bull runs due to the impact of institutional funds this time around.

However, as Rombos explains, no one can predict the future.





Source link

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button