Bitcoin

Comparing previous crypto cycles shows that Bitcoin is nowhere near the top


A comparison of previous crypto cycles shows that there is a clear pattern, and it appears that Bitcoin is no longer near the top for the time being.

Dor Shaher, a Bitcoin researcher, pointed this out Twitter That there is consistency in the way correction periods have played out in previous cycles.

Bitcoin price growth since cycle low

Here is a diagram of _checkinchain This will make it easier to understand how the pattern exists in BTC Courses show:

BTC price growth since low

On closer examination, it turns out that each cycle has a correction period around the middle.

The first cycle is 2011. Here’s how the price of bitcoin has changed along the way:

2011 correction

The marked area in the chart is the correction period where the price shows a clear downtrend. It lasted 51 days.

The next correction occurred in 2013 as shown in the chart below.

2013 correction

This was not as smooth as before; It had many lows and highs. It disappeared after 88 days.

2017 is the next relevant year, but it is different from the others.

2017 looks different than all others

As you can see in the chart, instead of a specific period of decline, Bitcoin experienced sporadic declines of around 30-40% in 2013. They lasted 90 days in total.

Related reading | South African brothers flee $3.6 billion in Bitcoin

Finally, there is the cycle we are in now.

The current cycle

Comparing this to previous years, it is possible that the latest crash was a mid-cycle correction. So far, it has lasted 70 days.

When does the correction period end?

It is difficult to determine when a file is Bitcoin price will start to rise again, but guesses can be made if the mid-cycle theorem is correct.

The 2010-11 era peaked at 325 days, while the 2011-2015 period peaked at 747 days. 2015-2018 took 1067 days longer.

From this, each cycle appears to be longer than the previous one. The reason behind this is most likely the entitlement of Bitcoin as an asset.

Related reading | Bitcoin hash rate continues death spiral after China crackdown on miners

If the pattern is to follow, the current cycle must be longer than 1067 days. So, in the 921 days so far, it should last at least 148 days before it peaks.

Also, each correction period was also longer than the previous one. This will likely be at least 90 days, which means a few more weeks of a downtrend.

At the moment, Bitcoin appears to be around $32,000. While it’s down 11% in the last 7 days, it seems Some whales are starting to pile up, which could be a positive sign.

BTC seems to be going down | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Could the current downtrend be a mid-cycle correction? Perhaps, but nothing is said about her certainty.

If this is indeed a mid-cycle correction, and the pattern holds, then Bitcoin shouldn’t be near the top right now.

Featured image from Unsplash, charts from _checkonchain





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